Evaluating an Antifragile Small Cap Insulated from Tariff Tantrums

Contents Overview

1. Overview of bespoke and composite ‘Convex Lens’

2. Fitness Test: Lens One

3. Fitness Test: Lens Two

4. Fitness Test: Lens Three

5. Fitness Test: Lens Four

6. Conclusion

7. Disclaimer

Overview of bespoke and composite ‘Convex Lens’

Investing is really a mix of both science and art. The science side is all about discipline, process, and sharp analysis. Without this, you can’t expect consistent success — it’s like having a clear playbook you follow every time. This includes things like having a solid valuation method (think cash flow based valuation over the conventional accounting or P/E based), using systematic screens to find potential stocks, and managing risk carefully — like pilots running preflight checks to avoid disaster.

But investing is not just a science — it’s also very much an art. This is where judgment, experience, and temperament come in. It’s not just about being smart; it’s about being rational when others are emotional. The artful investor knows how to interpret data beyond the numbers, deciding on the right valuation multiples based on factors like optionality, innovation, and sustainability.

You also need independent thinking — going against the crowd when necessary. It’s that “second-level thinking” that makes the difference, spotting when the market consensus is wrong.

Beyond that, emotional control is super important. Markets move because of human emotions like fear and greed, causing prices to swing wildly. The best investors stay calm, patient, and humble — holding firm to their convictions even when others panic or get overly excited. So really, investing is equally about mindset and method.

As mentioned earlier, my custom lens combines four different perspectives, with three out of the four primarily emphasising judgement—the art side of investing.

Source: Composite Convex Lens (proprietary tock screening framework of Antifragile Thinking)