Thanks for your immense service that you do to the investor community.
Have tremendous respect for the clarity and transparency you provide.
Your Views on Syngene considering the recent change of management and recent acquisitions in US, as well does performance of Syngene have a detrimental hangover impact with Biocon promotor holding and with Biocon struggling ( and continued reduction in promotor holding not giving so much confidence..)
Have been holding and accumulating Syngence for the past 4 years ( slow and steady) and intend to hold for long term ( 10 Y plus)
Hi Sir, would like to have your thought behind the Patent pending process, sadhana nitro is working on for the manufacturing of PAP via nitrobenzene method. The communication is less but last june in PPT managment guided about the maximum grade purity of the PAP with this method. Have received PLI for 36000 TPA ..and so they are expanding. In last space you said one can't fight with china with Semaglutide , PAP ...commodities basically. Do you see if the commercial scale increase sustainably for this high purity grade pap cleaner and sustainable method, and cost effective compared to china.. can be a game changer type of thing .
I've been trying to decode the analogy of peak valuation of 5x P/S, average 2x and current 1x. I tried on screener with
(i) market cap of < 500 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(ii) market cap of > 500 AND market cap of < 1000 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(iii) market cap of > 1000 AND market cap of < 1500 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(iv) market cap of > 1500 AND market cap of < 2000 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8 and so on.
I found some stocks, but you have clearly denied on Twitter. I would ask you what other criteria I should select and remove from existing above-mentioned criteria to reach the conclusion.
I would also request you to start low-cost Q&A with monthly subscription of 500, where we can also get a limited access of your knowledge.
This was TVToday. Clearly a disrupted business but perhaps below liquidation / asset value even with the internet disruption. Not a SIP candidate IMHO. Use your own judgement.
Hi Sir, how should one go about researching stocks like Shivalik Rasayan where management doesn't do any concalls or interviews? Are financials and Annual reports the only way to find info about them? Asking from a person's perspective who can't do scuttlebutt as of now.
Hi Sajal Sir! I heard your views on Kopran and how their heart is in the right place. With their recent merger, management expects synergies in revenue and operational efficiency. Could you elaborate on the key synergies expected and how this positions Kopran competitively in the long run? Since parts of their business compete with API companies, some with branded MNCs, and even diagnostics to some extent, does this diversified model create a unique positioning? Are there any other such integrated pharma companies in India or globally that Kopran could be compared with? Thanks!
LTIMindtree appears to be below its long-term mean on most valuation parameters. However, in a global slowdown environment, discretionary spending may suffer. Therefore, we must exercise caution in any sector or business where discretionary consumption plays a role.
Max India is still in the gestation phase, so no change. 4Q F25 doesn't matter much but will likely be losses.
Makers, Resonance – cheap but no update/commentary available other than annual reports. Wait for the first sign of margin expansion.
Hikal, Solara, Kopran – 4Q is expected to be better than 3Q F25; F26 should be better than F25, but let's hold our breath as the result season is about to kick off.
On financial front …. For the additional 1.2 cr of shares increasing , you are getting 24 odd rupees of cash per share and and eps of 15.23 , which is for a.High margin business in an attractive diagnostic center.
My understanding is this business is big contract and maybe having a B2G or b2b focus … but margins are phenomenal and maybe with a bigger parent they may be able to expand footprint.
An added plus is now the all the businesses seem under one roof mgmt maybe more aligned longer term.
On combined front
Total turnover is 700-720 cr and market cap is 900 crs . So still avliable at 1.2 x which is low for a pharma co and lower for a diagnostic co.
Can we expect a perception and valuation re rating going forward ?
Cost savings and operational efficiencies by eliminating redundancies across support functions from supply chains to other functions such as R&D and related party transactions and, moreover, the confidence that both related businesses are now under the listed entity along with future strategic planning @ Kopran
Additionally, a larger and more robust balance sheet can enhance sustainability. Let's see how they execute in F26 on a low F25 base.
Views on Privi Speciality Chemicals? Comes across as a competent management with over 3 decades of demonstrated expertise in aroma chemicals reflected in long lasting relationships with some of the leading customers. The question specifically is on two fronts :
1. With utilization levels of ~92% how do you see the forward rate of change going forward in F26/27
2. View on Mr. Mahesh Babani. Is he your typical 'TCE' management?
Naturally if the above two is a tick in the box, would this qualify to be SIP worthy?
It can be due to several reasons like if u see the profitability is not very consistent, so in accounting due to carry forward of losses as we dont pay taxes on loss, the tax rate for future period may look higher, also there could be Deffered tax adjustments, if the have written of DTA it could results in higher taxes. There could be other reasons as well example: Geographical taxes as co operates in US so taxes might be diff from the ones operating in India,it also can be due to exceptional items like Impairment of assets,sale of asset etc. Annual report would be good to read under the "Notes to Financial statement section"
Hello sir,on FDC you were saying about electral price has to reduced how it will impact the company and what are drivers of export for Fdc,also going through annual report they also talk about lot of advanced technology,CDMO activities how and when it will impact the bottomline, thanks
Electral is already the price and volume leader in the ORS category, with Cipla being the distant number 2 player. Electral's monthly sales did surprisingly well in Feb 2025 (not sure why or how sustainable).
Hello sir , in case of piramal pharma,laurus or other CDMOs stocks you are vocal that ultimately the driver will be the CDMOs 5 years from now ,are your thoughts similar for jubilant pharmova or even their radiopharma/radiopharmacy will also be driver?
For Jubilant Pharmova, I don't think CDMO will be their biggest driver of value. CRDMO will move the needle, as the size is not too small, but it is not the leader segment for them.
Assuming you don't understand CDMO much more than any other sector, just have a small direct exposure via 2 or a max of 3 holdings and keep a low allocation (single digit total across all 3).
So if 100 is invested across, say, 30 holdings, maybe a max of 10% in any 3 CDMOs you think you can track without any social validation.
It's a subjective question changes from person to person. If you have a diversified pf across sectors then having 2 good quality cdmos is more than enough. High randomness and Few low randomness cos to balance the volatility like hospitals or quasi consumption. I believe that's what even sir would have said :)
Dear Sajal Sir,
Thanks for your immense service that you do to the investor community.
Have tremendous respect for the clarity and transparency you provide.
Your Views on Syngene considering the recent change of management and recent acquisitions in US, as well does performance of Syngene have a detrimental hangover impact with Biocon promotor holding and with Biocon struggling ( and continued reduction in promotor holding not giving so much confidence..)
Have been holding and accumulating Syngence for the past 4 years ( slow and steady) and intend to hold for long term ( 10 Y plus)
Thank you
Regards
Ravi
Explained here:
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/free-q-and-a-30-march-response-part
Please skip the initial 5-6 mins but heed the disclaimer please
Hi Sir, would like to have your thought behind the Patent pending process, sadhana nitro is working on for the manufacturing of PAP via nitrobenzene method. The communication is less but last june in PPT managment guided about the maximum grade purity of the PAP with this method. Have received PLI for 36000 TPA ..and so they are expanding. In last space you said one can't fight with china with Semaglutide , PAP ...commodities basically. Do you see if the commercial scale increase sustainably for this high purity grade pap cleaner and sustainable method, and cost effective compared to china.. can be a game changer type of thing .
Not tracking PAP KSM companies as China has spare capacity and they can dump (rest same as in link below. Listen from 16:40)
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/free-q-and-a-30-march-response-part
I've been trying to decode the analogy of peak valuation of 5x P/S, average 2x and current 1x. I tried on screener with
(i) market cap of < 500 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(ii) market cap of > 500 AND market cap of < 1000 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(iii) market cap of > 1000 AND market cap of < 1500 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8
(iv) market cap of > 1500 AND market cap of < 2000 AND P/S < 1.2 AND P/S > 0.8 and so on.
I found some stocks, but you have clearly denied on Twitter. I would ask you what other criteria I should select and remove from existing above-mentioned criteria to reach the conclusion.
I would also request you to start low-cost Q&A with monthly subscription of 500, where we can also get a limited access of your knowledge.
This was TVToday. Clearly a disrupted business but perhaps below liquidation / asset value even with the internet disruption. Not a SIP candidate IMHO. Use your own judgement.
Listen from 17:00
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/free-q-and-a-30-march-response-part
Hi Sir, how should one go about researching stocks like Shivalik Rasayan where management doesn't do any concalls or interviews? Are financials and Annual reports the only way to find info about them? Asking from a person's perspective who can't do scuttlebutt as of now.
Last few minutes here:
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/free-q-and-a-30-march-response-part
Hi Sajal Sir! I heard your views on Kopran and how their heart is in the right place. With their recent merger, management expects synergies in revenue and operational efficiency. Could you elaborate on the key synergies expected and how this positions Kopran competitively in the long run? Since parts of their business compete with API companies, some with branded MNCs, and even diagnostics to some extent, does this diversified model create a unique positioning? Are there any other such integrated pharma companies in India or globally that Kopran could be compared with? Thanks!
https://open.substack.com/pub/antifragilethinking/p/free-q-and-a?r=7nvlp&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=107070343
Sir , your valuable insights on IT sector and LTIM in particular.
LTIMindtree appears to be below its long-term mean on most valuation parameters. However, in a global slowdown environment, discretionary spending may suffer. Therefore, we must exercise caution in any sector or business where discretionary consumption plays a role.
What is your perception regarding Hikal, Solara, Kopran, Max India, Resonance and Makers Labs going forward Q4FY25.?
Just a broad question. But would like to know you views on them.
Max India is still in the gestation phase, so no change. 4Q F25 doesn't matter much but will likely be losses.
Makers, Resonance – cheap but no update/commentary available other than annual reports. Wait for the first sign of margin expansion.
Hikal, Solara, Kopran – 4Q is expected to be better than 3Q F25; F26 should be better than F25, but let's hold our breath as the result season is about to kick off.
Hi Sajal bhai ,
Intersting merger announcement for Kopran
My thoughts
On financial front …. For the additional 1.2 cr of shares increasing , you are getting 24 odd rupees of cash per share and and eps of 15.23 , which is for a.High margin business in an attractive diagnostic center.
My understanding is this business is big contract and maybe having a B2G or b2b focus … but margins are phenomenal and maybe with a bigger parent they may be able to expand footprint.
An added plus is now the all the businesses seem under one roof mgmt maybe more aligned longer term.
On combined front
Total turnover is 700-720 cr and market cap is 900 crs . So still avliable at 1.2 x which is low for a pharma co and lower for a diagnostic co.
Can we expect a perception and valuation re rating going forward ?
Any thoughts from your end would be appreciated
Cost savings and operational efficiencies by eliminating redundancies across support functions from supply chains to other functions such as R&D and related party transactions and, moreover, the confidence that both related businesses are now under the listed entity along with future strategic planning @ Kopran
Additionally, a larger and more robust balance sheet can enhance sustainability. Let's see how they execute in F26 on a low F25 base.
Hello Sir, your views needed on CHEMPLAST Sanmar.. it's debt issue, management capabilities and business outlook. 😊 Thanks
Chemplast Sanmar
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/another-chemical-santaap-case-in
Views on Privi Speciality Chemicals? Comes across as a competent management with over 3 decades of demonstrated expertise in aroma chemicals reflected in long lasting relationships with some of the leading customers. The question specifically is on two fronts :
1. With utilization levels of ~92% how do you see the forward rate of change going forward in F26/27
2. View on Mr. Mahesh Babani. Is he your typical 'TCE' management?
Naturally if the above two is a tick in the box, would this qualify to be SIP worthy?
1. The "CDMO" JV will incrementally scale up; specialised aroma chemicals for Givaudan
2. I believe so based on my channel checks and own assessment of public disclosures (TCE)
Sir, how you see Aarti Drugs and IOLCP in terms of growth, management capabilities and business. Thanks 😊
Both are commodities; maybe Aarti Drugs is a marginally better risk/reward. Don't hold me to that.
Hello sir,for Piramal pharma tax rates are very high and the explained reason was unable to understand,by when it will normalize to 25-30%
Please see their 2Q and 3Q F25 transcripts
It can be due to several reasons like if u see the profitability is not very consistent, so in accounting due to carry forward of losses as we dont pay taxes on loss, the tax rate for future period may look higher, also there could be Deffered tax adjustments, if the have written of DTA it could results in higher taxes. There could be other reasons as well example: Geographical taxes as co operates in US so taxes might be diff from the ones operating in India,it also can be due to exceptional items like Impairment of assets,sale of asset etc. Annual report would be good to read under the "Notes to Financial statement section"
Hello sir,on FDC you were saying about electral price has to reduced how it will impact the company and what are drivers of export for Fdc,also going through annual report they also talk about lot of advanced technology,CDMO activities how and when it will impact the bottomline, thanks
Electral is already the price and volume leader in the ORS category, with Cipla being the distant number 2 player. Electral's monthly sales did surprisingly well in Feb 2025 (not sure why or how sustainable).
Hello sir , in case of piramal pharma,laurus or other CDMOs stocks you are vocal that ultimately the driver will be the CDMOs 5 years from now ,are your thoughts similar for jubilant pharmova or even their radiopharma/radiopharmacy will also be driver?
For Jubilant Pharmova, I don't think CDMO will be their biggest driver of value. CRDMO will move the needle, as the size is not too small, but it is not the leader segment for them.
Hello sir,as randomness is so high and winner can be any we should approach cdmo space with a basket approach of 5-6 stocks or only 2 stocks?
Assuming you don't understand CDMO much more than any other sector, just have a small direct exposure via 2 or a max of 3 holdings and keep a low allocation (single digit total across all 3).
So if 100 is invested across, say, 30 holdings, maybe a max of 10% in any 3 CDMOs you think you can track without any social validation.
It's a subjective question changes from person to person. If you have a diversified pf across sectors then having 2 good quality cdmos is more than enough. High randomness and Few low randomness cos to balance the volatility like hospitals or quasi consumption. I believe that's what even sir would have said :)
Hello sir , thanks for opportunity,will there be any impact of US tariffs on CDMOs?
Explained last weekend here:
https://antifragilethinking.substack.com/p/tariffsthe-corridor-of-extreme-uncertainty
https://youtu.be/xFOwiKb6foU?si=o_paLbs0qtv24kXj
21 Min onwards sajal sir and Aditya sir have shared their views in depth!